Sunday, October 11, 2009

I'm old, gimme, gimme, gimme!

Graying democratic societies implies an irrevocable socialist policy trajectory – even the most obnoxious heckler at the recent Obamacare townhall meetings accepts Social Security as a fact of life and in no way considers it socialism. Everything is socialist until one gets a monthly check. What about the GOP alternative to Social Security? A partially securitized option? Subject to the same bubbles that brought down Lehman and Bear Stearns?

Neither the Republicans or Libertarians can answer the question of long-term care. Therefore I think the political solution to entitlement programs is unattainable. It is impossible to convince someone to give up their monthly check. Democracy in this case may enable a feedback loop that makes reform impossible; a perfect storm of AARP pressure and mutual loathing within each political party to touch that third rail.

The solution maybe to divest the federal government out of Social Security obligations by passively bringing about the total collapse of the system and then declaring a state of emergency to circumvent the subsequent public outcry.

I forsee global finance decamping out of graying nations to move operations to the tax and legal regimes of younger nations, nations without FMLA, SS, Medicare, EPA, NLRB, EEOC, etc. The remnants would be bankrupt, holding securities, bonds and 401ks about as worthless as 19th century mining scrip; starving, left to the rule of whatever petty neo-feudal order that takes control of America’s dwindling resources.

I'm not opposed to old age insurance per se, but it should be reserved for veterans, teachers and cops/firemen (like the vote IMHO). There is a cultural taboo in the urban US regarding living with one's parents, a product perhaps of Weber's Protestant ethic. In the days of $1/gallon oil and 6% annual growth, one could afford to go it alone or with a roomie.

Chinese families use parents as a free babysitting and cooking service for grandkids, a built-in social safety net that does not rely on daycare centers, allowing for a more efficient sharing of costs and a higher than average savings rate (also fueled by the elderly generations' collective memories of forced labor and starvation in the days of Mao). Thus, the dearth of banks along 8th Avenue and thus the Asian appetite for non-security, non-debt instruments that leave banks scrambling for investment vehicles with enough return on investment to meet reserve requirements, therefore, the overvalued price for land, gold and oil.